Weather forecast for the solar eclipse, issued at 11:00 on Monday 10 August

Weather outlook for the solar eclipse on Wednesday 12 August
72-hour forecast

On Wednesday, a low-pressure system is expected to approach southern Iceland. The latest weather model runs forecast that its centre will be located just south of the Reykjanes Peninsula on Wednesday afternoon, with its associated weather fronts moving across most of the country. The low is then expected to move eastwards along the south coast. Precipitation is expected mainly in southern Iceland, with less precipitation in the Breiðafjörður area, initially in the northern part and later in the southern part towards evening. This is where cloud cover may be most likely to break up. Northern Iceland is also expected to remain mostly dry until later in the day.

Most models now place the low in a similar location, increasing confidence that the forecast is converging on its likely position. However, uncertainty remains regarding the extent of the frontal system and how far north it will reach along Faxaflói. This will have a significant bearing on how clearly, or whether, the solar eclipse will be visible.

The high-resolution models now extend far enough to include 18:00 on Wednesday. They show three cloud layers: high-level, mid-level and low-level cloud. High cloud has relatively little effect on the visibility of the solar eclipse, as sunlight can pass through it fairly easily. Mid-level cloud allows less sunlight through, although it may still be possible to view the eclipse. If an area of low cloud is present, however, the chances of seeing the Sun or the eclipse are small.

The total cloud-cover forecast indicates that skies may be almost entirely overcast across Iceland at 18:00, as shown in the green image. However, the low-cloud forecast appears somewhat fragmented in places in western Iceland and the Westfjords. The mid-level and high-level cloud forecasts show gaps in broadly similar areas, although the gaps do not coincide exactly.

The forecast for the whole country on Wednesday is as follows:

Easterly and northeasterly winds, 3–10 m/s. Mostly cloudy with rain at times. Precipitation easing in West Iceland in the evening. Temperatures 8–18°C, coolest along the north and east coasts.

The precipitation forecast map is valid for 18:00 on Wednesday and shows in greater detail where rain is expected.

Weather outlook along the path of totality

Capital area

Rather light easterly or northeasterly winds, cloudy with rain. There is little chance of breaks developing in the cloud cover around the time of the solar eclipse.

Reykjanes Peninsula

Similar conditions are forecast for the Reykjanes Peninsula, with northeasterly winds and rain. There is little chance of breaks developing in the cloud cover.

Snæfellsnes Peninsula

The current forecast indicates easterly winds and generally dry conditions until midday, followed by rain at times in the afternoon. Precipitation is expected to ease towards evening. Cloudy conditions are likely, although there is a moderate chance that the low-level and mid-level cloud cover may break up locally.

Westfjords

Rather light northeasterly winds and mostly dry. Brighter conditions are likely in the Westfjords, with a fairly good chance of breaks developing in the cloud cover, particularly in the north. At present, the cloud is expected to consist mainly of mid-level and high-level cloud, with less low cloud.